Archive for the ‘the economy stupid’ Category

Forecasting the Monetary Policy decisions – will there be a rate cut or not

Forecasting the monetary policy The next monetary policy announcement is due in the last week of May 2010. We attempt to forecast the cut in the policy discount rate by looking at oil prices, the relationship between oil prices and imports, exports, remittances, the current account balance, net foreign assets, credit to the private sector [...]

May 21, 2010  Tags: , , ,   Posted in: I can't hack it, Pakistan, the economy stupid  No Comments

Oil Insights – Oil Prices, Peak Oil debate and drivers for those who have never looked at oil before

I am not a trader, nor an analyst. Technically speaking, I have only worked for an Investment Bank once in my life and that too on the margin trading and risk management desk. I am good with numbers and while I have done well with Excel, Lotus 123 and Symphony, I am not the distinguished [...]

February 7, 2010  Tags: , , , ,   Posted in: Alchemy stuff, I can't hack it, Risk, the economy stupid  No Comments

Pakistan Macro Economic Update – January 2010

The figures for July- December 2009 are guardedly encouraging as there are some signs that the economy is on the road to recovery. Trade deficit has narrowed due to a decline in imports (because of reduced oil and commodity prices in this period as well as the slowdown in economic activity) which have outweighed the [...]

January 31, 2010  Tags: , , , ,   Posted in: Karachi, Liquidity Risk, PASHA, Pakistan, the economy stupid  No Comments

The Caltex, PSO, Shell Challenge…

Good petrol pumps (gas stations for my friends from an earlier life) are hard to find in Karachi. Good petrol pumps that will give you consistent mileage weeks after weeks are even harder. After painfully experimenting with almost every brand and every locality I have now built my own list of three pumps that I [...]

January 31, 2010  Tags: , , , , ,   Posted in: Karachi, Pakistan, the economy stupid  One Comment

The Crude Oil Price debate

(Guest post by Agnes Paul) A.1     Preface Given the current uncertainty in the future direction of crude oil prices, there is an interesting debate going on about where prices are likely be in 3 to 6 months time. There are two schools of thought in the market concerning the direction in which the crude oil [...]

October 3, 2009  Tags: , , , , , , ,   Posted in: Pakistan, Risk, the economy stupid  2 Comments

Hans Rosling, Gapminder & Google.

Two days ago I received a cryptic email from a prospective client. It had a link and a simple “Take a look at this please.” I did. I recommend that you do the same. Hans Rosling and Google together have done more for statistics with their tool, their presentation and their data aggregation than all [...]

September 25, 2009  Tags: , ,   Posted in: Education, Risk, Risk Training, Training, the economy stupid  No Comments

Pakistan Macro Economic Profile – Earlier this year

Here is an extract from Pakistan Risk Review’s second volume. This is where we were earlier this year. Pakistan’s Macro Economic Snapshot – March& April 09 Inflation (Year on Year): After peaking in August 2008, the consumer price index (CPI) and wholesale price index (WPI) have declined. The non-food, non- energy (NFNE) core inflation index, [...]

August 15, 2009   Posted in: Basel II, Pakistan, Risk, the economy stupid  No Comments

An abridged history of the technology industry in Pakistan, three

When the time came for us to graduate things had started to get exciting. GUI tools were getting more impressive. Borland was getting the whacking of a life time at the hands of Microsoft in everything other than development environments and was returning the favor in IDE’s (Integrated Development Environments). The era of Word Star [...]

May 1, 2009  Tags: , ,   Posted in: Desi Back to Desh, Desi Startup, Karachi, PASHA, Pakistan, computer science, entrepreneurs, small business, the economy stupid  3 Comments

An abridged history of technology industry in Pakistan, two

1991 is the year when the world changed for me forever. At the beginning of my fourth term at FAST ICS my father went out and bought me an Intel 286 DTK computer. He borrowed 30,000 rupees from two elders in my extended family. For us as a household, it was an unthinkable amount and [...]

April 29, 2009  Tags: , ,   Posted in: Desi Back to Desh, Desi Startup, PASHA, Pakistan, computer science, the economy stupid  2 Comments

The things one needs to do in this country to get reviewed

One of the joys of having an office in Karachi is Adnan Haider’s company when he drops in town to get away from all that is Dubai. In the few days that it takes for him to quickly get Dubai-sick as well as Karachi-sick (not necessarily in that order) I am normally able to twist [...]

April 27, 2009  Tags:   Posted in: Alchemy stuff, the economy stupid  No Comments

Why Pakistan Risk?

Marketing blurb, read at your own risk I liked David Beim as soon as I walked into his room. He had just graded my Corporate Finance exemption exam at Columbia and given me the permission to take a higher level course. The secretary of the Finance Faculty had asked me to come and meet him [...]

April 11, 2009  Tags: , , ,   Posted in: Pakistan, Risk, the economy stupid  4 Comments

Editors’ Note, Pakistan Risk Review

Emerging markets require special attention. Standard models don’t apply, conventional wisdom doesn’t work and traditional thinking can quickly land you in uncharted and troubled territory. Pakistan as an economy is not that different from other emerging markets.   Like others we have our own personal challenges and demons. However given our special needs and situation [...]

April 8, 2009  Tags: , , , , , ,   Posted in: I can't hack it, Pakistan, Pillar II, Risk, the economy stupid  No Comments

You were saying, a rejoinder four…

Look here and here. There is more behind the G-20 and Nato protests than these selective images show case. The violence is hard to ignore but it overshadows the cause, the concept, the organization or the impact. So if I was the only source of information you had, my commentary the basis of your opinion, [...]

April 5, 2009  Tags: , ,   Posted in: Desi Back to Desh, Desi Startup, I can't hack it, Karachi, PASHA, Pakistan, the economy stupid  2 Comments

Myths about Pakistan or an infrastructure rejoinder, three

Jehan did a post on This too is Pakistan, in October 2008. At the peak of distrust, despair and negativity coming out by the buckets in that month, she went out to highlight some of the many things that are right with this country. I didn’t get round to doing a follow up but Post [...]

April 5, 2009  Tags: , , , , , ,   Posted in: Desi Back to Desh, Education, Karachi, PASHA, Pakistan, life style, the economy stupid  3 Comments

The bottom is here …

On 3rd August 2008, I wrote the first depressing post of the season. Titled there goes your coolant, here comes your core, it more or less captured how I felt about the economy and the state of our firm. A number of other posts followed in the next few months with the same theme with [...]

March 31, 2009  Tags: ,   Posted in: Pakistan, the economy stupid  No Comments