Forecasting the monetary policy The next monetary policy announcement is due in the last week of May 2010. We attempt to forecast the cut in the policy discount rate by looking at oil prices, the relationship between oil prices and imports, exports, remittances, the current account balance, net foreign assets, credit to the private sector…
Category: the economy stupid
Oil Insights – Oil Prices, Peak Oil debate and drivers for those who have never looked at oil before
I am not a trader, nor an analyst. Technically speaking, I have only worked for an Investment Bank once in my life and that too on the margin trading and risk management desk. I am good with numbers and while I have done well with Excel, Lotus 123 and Symphony, I am not the distinguished…
Pakistan Macro Economic Update – January 2010
The figures for July- December 2009 are guardedly encouraging as there are some signs that the economy is on the road to recovery. Trade deficit has narrowed due to a decline in imports (because of reduced oil and commodity prices in this period as well as the slowdown in economic activity) which have outweighed the…
The Caltex, PSO, Shell Challenge…
Good petrol pumps (gas stations for my friends from an earlier life) are hard to find in Karachi. Good petrol pumps that will give you consistent mileage weeks after weeks are even harder. After painfully experimenting with almost every brand and every locality I have now built my own list of three pumps that I…
The Crude Oil Price debate
(Guest post by Agnes Paul) A.1 Preface Given the current uncertainty in the future direction of crude oil prices, there is an interesting debate going on about where prices are likely be in 3 to 6 months time. There are two schools of thought in the market concerning the direction in which the crude oil…
Hans Rosling, Gapminder & Google.
Two days ago I received a cryptic email from a prospective client. It had a link and a simple “Take a look at this please.” I did. I recommend that you do the same. Hans Rosling and Google together have done more for statistics with their tool, their presentation and their data aggregation than all…
Pakistan Macro Economic Profile – Earlier this year
Here is an extract from Pakistan Risk Review’s second volume. This is where we were earlier this year. Pakistan’s Macro Economic Snapshot – March& April 09 Inflation (Year on Year): After peaking in August 2008, the consumer price index (CPI) and wholesale price index (WPI) have declined. The non-food, non- energy (NFNE) core inflation index,…
An abridged history of the technology industry in Pakistan, three
When the time came for us to graduate things had started to get exciting. GUI tools were getting more impressive. Borland was getting the whacking of a life time at the hands of Microsoft in everything other than development environments and was returning the favor in IDE’s (Integrated Development Environments). The era of Word Star…
An abridged history of technology industry in Pakistan, two
1991 is the year when the world changed for me forever. At the beginning of my fourth term at FAST ICS my father went out and bought me an Intel 286 DTK computer. He borrowed 30,000 rupees from two elders in my extended family. For us as a household, it was an unthinkable amount and…
The things one needs to do in this country to get reviewed
One of the joys of having an office in Karachi is Adnan Haider’s company when he drops in town to get away from all that is Dubai. In the few days that it takes for him to quickly get Dubai-sick as well as Karachi-sick (not necessarily in that order) I am normally able to twist…